The much-awaited results of the elections to the Indian federal parliament are out. The current National Democratic Alliance (NDA) remains in power, though it lost around fifty seats compared to their strength in the last parliament. The ruling NDA, led by the richest political party in the world – the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – fought the elections staying in power with great support from the major private media houses and corporates. The opposition front, INDIA, were written off by many in the run up to the elections but put up a brave fight to defy expectations by increasing their tally by over a hundred seats.
In an election fought in a presidential style and personality based, a comparison of vote shares as per the ECI between the opposition against the ruling party reveals interesting observations. The BJP’s national vote share marginally decreased from 37.3% in 2019 to 36.57% in 2024, leading to a significant reduction in its seats from 303 to 240 while falling short of the 272-seat majority mark. Conversely, the Congress party’s vote share increased from 19.5% to 21.20%, which nearly doubled its seats from 52 to 99. Consequently, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition, led by BJP, secured a majority with 291 seats, whereas the Opposition’s INDIA bloc, led by Congress, secured 234 seats.
For Nepal, these election results are important from two perspectives. First, an overwhelming majority for the BJP would have meant that the Hindutva influence in Nepal would have intensified as observed over the past couple of years. For instance, on a recent visit to the cities of Biratnagar, the main street market tried to emulate the religious flag displays seen in many cities in India. With the BJP now needing to work with coalition partners, the push for a singular religious agenda may face more checks. In addition, the referendum on the future of BJP to be donned by saffron-clad leaders also happened inadvertently, as the party lost significant ground in Uttar Pradesh, with INDIA grabbing 43 seats from 80 total seats, out of which Samajwadi Party (SP) emerged as a game-changer with 37 seats
Second, a susbstaintial majority for the ruling majority would have bolstered India’s multi-polar global strategy. Western countries, which often spoke out at even smaller events during elections in developing countries including sending observers, refrained from commenting on India despite violations of normal democratic norms during the last phases of the election campaigns. This indicates that countries will pause to rethink, what their strategy of engagement is given the benefit of doubt to the current government. Consequently, India’s focus may shift more towards its neighborhood.
Ten years ago. after his first win, Prime Minister Narendra Modi invited the head of states of all the SAARC countries to deliver his “neighborhood first” message. He visited Bhutan as his first overseas trip. In 2019’s swearing in ceremony, it was leaders from BIMSTEC, Mauritius and Kyrgyzstan. A thumping 350-400 seat win might have prompted invitations to leaders of major powers of the world, but the need for coalition management now suggests a renewed focus on neighboring countries. To meet global ambitions, it will be important to have your neighbors on the side.
For Nepal numerous pending issues with India require attention. India has shown little interest in resolving border dispute and dismissed a report produced by Eminent Person’s Group (EPG) jointly commissioned by the two Prime Ministers. Selling electricity to India remains challenging due to short-term contracts, and selling electricity through India to Bangladesh is even more complex. Upper Arun Hydropower Project, a 1,071 MW USD 1.71 billion project that has had commitments from global financial organizations. However, it has been caught in limbo as India deliberates on buying electricity from this firm. The memories of the blockade and India not accepting demonetized currency is yet to fade.
Moreoever, while Chinese companies operate in India and Chinese equipment are used in India infra projects, Indian companies that use just Chinese trucks in Nepal for heavy transport are reprimanded. The international airport in Pokhara, Nepal do not have international flights from Indian cities as it is built with Chinese financing. Similarly, the aircrafts flying to Lumbini airport developed by Asian Development Bank did not get access to Indian airspace as a Chinese contractor was involved. The world will be watching how a bit humbled administration in India will deal with these issues. These issues would have only aggravated if we saw a 350-400 seat majority.
Democracy is a wonderful system despite its flaws. A silent majority can take on people with power, money, authority and sycophant media. It holds up a mirror to people who have been surrounded by folks who do not tell you the truth and worse, when one starts to stop listening to the messages from the ground. In the days of the internet a few people on YouTube can overpower the voices of billions of rupees programming of media conglomerates. India’s democracy will hopefully strengthen with this election and some of the battered institutions of democracy revive. There is another open moment for Nepal and Southasia. Regional initiatives have opportunities for revival as the potential of this interconnected region is seamless.
Further comparative reading:
Sujeev is the founder CEO of beed. He leverages over 25 years of experience in diverse fields and geographies to advise, lead and inspire. With comprehensive networks in Nepal’s public, private, civil and diplomatic sectors, Sujeev is a trusted business and policy advisor and respected strategic thinker. From economies of developing countries to economies of human beings, he moves across different worlds, with his passion for the Himalayas being the axis.
