It speaks volumes of a revolution when two young rappers are featured in a school textbook under the chapter A New Generation. Gen Z rappers Hannan Hossain Shimul and Muhammad Shezan made history as they stood out as voices of defiance helping ignite the student-led Bangladeshi revolution of 2024. What started off as protests against quota system reservations in government jobs for the 1971 war veterans and their descendants — in an already difficult job market, turned into a full blown revolution against the status quo. The rappers, along with millions others, are emblematic of a new Bangladesh full of hope carved out by a new generation. Graffiti on the streets vividly expresses this youth-driven movement, symbolizing sacrifice, resistance, and hope.
Graffitis line the streets across the country
In the aftermath of the revolution, politics has become the talk of the town in Dhaka and beyond. This public nature of politics is led by the younger generation, as politics and the state of affairs of the country are trending for all the right reasons. Despite gains from the monsoon revolution, the road ahead for Bangladesh is full of challenges as it addresses fallouts from the dismantling of a 16-year-old autocratic regime and looks to navigate a rather tumultuous regional/global space.
Cautious Optimism as Herculean Overhauls Needed
Bangladesh is at the cusp. Bangladeshis are cautiously optimistic as they are well aware of the deep-seated structural issues plaguing the country and the magnitude of systemic overhauling required. The recent white paper released by the interim government unearths the problems in an economy where numbers were fabricated by the erstwhile regime. The document states that approximately around USD 234 billion were siphoned off from the country between 2009-2023. Moreover, there is evidence of billions more being embezzled across various sectors within the country. This plundering was at the cost of ordinary citizens as urban poverty soared with increased cost of living while many faced severe socio-economic insecurities – as can be seen in Dhaka and other urban centers.
Despite the fervor of the revolution, many in Bangladesh keep their hopes in check. There are fears that the revolution will just be a precursor to another overdue shift of power in a two-party kleptocracy run by the Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) – who combinedly have largely governed the country right from its inception. Moreover, anecdotal evidence suggests that loyalists of the ousted former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s AL regime strongly believe that this is just a blip fueled by a larger conspiracy. AL supporters are confident that their leadership – now in exile in India – will be back soon to continue leading Bangladesh. The political vacuum in the wake has also emboldened extremist factions eager to expand their influence in the country. Furthermore, India’s harboring of the deposed leader and inaction on an extradition request has caused severe frictions between the neighbours with ties reaching an all-time low.
Impressive Trajectory Despite Turmoil
Despite fabricated figures and plundering of state coffers in the past, Bangladesh has been, and still is, a strong economic performer outperforming averages for lower middle-income countries in terms of real per capita GDP over the last couple of decades – even after adjustments. The interim government is pursuing reform agendas and economic indicators are showing signs of gradual recovery. A post-revolution Bangladesh will seek to redefine its regional/global presence and reflect on its partnerships – as suggested by its reconciliatory approaches towards Pakistan with the resumption of trade. Nepal, if willing to expend diplomatic capital and present itself as a reliable partner, has an opportunity to further integrate itself in the social, political and economic sphere of the almost USD 450 billion dollar – and growing – Bangladeshi Economy.
Nepal-Bangladesh Relations
Nepal and Bangladesh, despite only being 40 kilometers apart at the shortest distance – the Siliguri corridor – have been unable to truly unleash mutual benefits that robust and proactive relations would bring. This is reflected in low and decreasing trade volumes between the countries. In the fiscal year 2023/24, Nepal exported goods worth approximately USD 3.33 million (NPR 463.1 million) to Bangladesh – a 19.3% year-on-year decrease from the previous year, while Nepal imported goods worth approximately USD 27.55 million (NPR 3.83 Billion) from Bangladesh – a 36.58% year-on-year decrease from the previous year. For the same year, Nepal’s export share to Bangladesh stood at 0.30% of its total exports and import share from Bangladesh was 0.24% of its total imports – both negligible. This follows a trend of stagnating trade between the countries as the previous fiscal year (2022/23) also saw a year-on-year decline in Nepal’s export to and import from Bangladesh by 34.76% and 46.02% respectively. Moreover, despite various socio-cultural commonalities and student exchanges, the people to people relations between Nepalis and Bangladeshis remains rather underdeveloped.
The recent historic power trade provides a solid foundation to take Nepal – Bangladesh relations to a new high. While the initial 40 MW is modest in terms of Bangladesh’s energy needs, it has positively positioned Nepal in pertinent private and public circles. Nepalis are further perceived to be friendly and welcoming people who do not have any historical baggage with Bangladesh – the lack of which is an advantage given the regional historicity and subsequent deep rooted tensions. Conversations with the Bangladeshi civil society and private sector actors reveal a genuine sense of comradery with Nepal and a desire to further engage across the chicken’s neck. Nepal must build on the power trade momentum and leverage its goodwill to strengthen bilateral ties.
Looking Ahead
With Bangladesh and Nepal set for LDC graduation in November 2026, both must navigate bilateral trade agreements to limit substantial revenue loss and remain competitive in the international market. Existing bilateral mechanisms like the Joint Economic Commission (JEC) and Commerce Secretary-level Meetings can drive progress if their recommendations are effectively implemented.
Priority should be in signing the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) which has been in limbo since 2020 due to the Nepali side’s concerns on ‘hidden tariffs’. The PTA would provide much needed impetus to the recently dwindling bilateral trade. Moreover, the signing of the Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement (BIPPA) between the countries is also pending.
Bangladesh has consistently ranked among the top sources of tourists to Nepal. In 2024, it was the fifth-largest contributor, with over 48,000 visitors. The numbers have been rising recently, with November 2024 seeing 5,148 Bangladeshi arrivals—a 36.9% increase from 3,761 the previous year. Similarly, December 2024 (6,582) and January 2025 (5,206) recorded year-on-year growth of 26.5% and 48.9% respectively. Much of this recent surge can be attributed to Bangladeshi travellers seeking alternative destinations post revolution friction with neighbouring India. Nepal must find ways to ensure this inflow sustains by initiating targeted campaigns – with emphasis on social media marketing – for Bangladeshi travellers. Establishing a digital cross-country payment mechanism should help significantly.
Additionally, there are multiple other bilateral, regional and global areas of potential engagement where Nepal and Bangladesh share common challenges and opportunities. These include but are not limited to – connectivity, FDI, climate change, water resource management, private sector expansion, navigating regional deadlocks, people to people relations etc.
The upcoming BIMSTEC SUMMIT (April 2-4, 2025 in Bangkok) presents a window for interim leader Mohammad Yunus and his counterpart KP Oli to advance bilateral discussions on the sidelines. With a young, dynamic and keen ambassador in Dhaka, Nepal has diplomatic capacities and apparatus in place to pursue expansion of ties. Joint multi stakeholder dialogues, research and publication of sector specific policy briefs with tailored recommendations for both capitals would ensure broad ownership of efforts in both the countries. Collaborations should also embrace innovative means to engage the sizable youth in both the countries.
It is an opportune moment to collaboratively work towards taking Nepal – Bangladesh ties to new heights for mutual benefit – Nepal must pursue proactive diplomacy to look ahead across the chicken neck.
Aman Pant is an interdisciplinary thinker with interests spanning public policy, governance, geopolitics, political economy, security, and Nepal’s global partnerships. He has worked as a Political Economy and Editorial consultant at the Nepal Economic Forum and Beed Management. With foundations in Economics and Peace Studies, Aman has an Erasmus Mundus Double Masters in Global Studies from Universities of Leipzig, Addis Ababa and Roskilde.
